Научный прогноз профессора биохими Майкла Бихи, опубликованный в его книге "Граница эволюции" ("The Edge of Evolution") о минимальном числе мутаций, необходимых для того, чтобы у переносчиков малярии организовалось сопротивление антибиотикам, теперь экспериментально подтвержден.
Критики книги утверждали, что выводы профессора Бихи неверны, поскольку он якобы потребовал для их получения одновременности мутаций, что действительно было бы излишне ужесточающим требованием. Однако требование одновременности возникновения необходимых мутаций профессором Бихи не ставилось. Он, разумеется, понимает, что для выпадения 12 с использованием двух игральных костей совсем не обязательно совершать броски одновременно. В своей книге он рассматривает последовательное возникновение закрепление необходимых мутаций в популяции.
Recall that the odds against getting two necessary, independent mutations are the multiplied odds for getting each mutation individually. What if a problem arose that required a cluster of mutations that was twice as complicated as a CCC? (Let’s call it a double CCC.) For example, what if instead of the several amino acid changes needed for chloroquine resistance in malaria, twice that number were needed? In that case the odds would be that for a CCC times itself. Instead of 1020 cells to solve the evolutionary problem, we would need 1040 cells. Workers at the University of Georgia have estimated that about a billion billion trillion (1030) bacterial cells are formed on the earth each and every year. … If that number has been the same over the entire several-billion-year history of the world, then throughout the course of history there would have been slightly fewer than 1040 cells, a bit less than we’d expect to need to get a double CCC. The conclusion, then, is that the odds are slightly against even one double CCC showing up by Darwinian processes in the entire course of life on earth.
[Michael Behe, The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism, p. 135, emphasis added]
Это был основной пункт критических замечаний. Практические результаты независимого исследования подтвердили правоту профессора Бихи.
Recall that the odds against getting two necessary, independent mutations are the multiplied odds for getting each mutation individually. What if a problem arose that required a cluster of mutations that was twice as complicated as a CCC? (Let’s call it a double CCC.) For example, what if instead of the several amino acid changes needed for chloroquine resistance in malaria, twice that number were needed? In that case the odds would be that for a CCC times itself. Instead of 1020 cells to solve the evolutionary problem, we would need 1040 cells. Workers at the University of Georgia have estimated that about a billion billion trillion (1030) bacterial cells are formed on the earth each and every year. … If that number has been the same over the entire several-billion-year history of the world, then throughout the course of history there would have been slightly fewer than 1040 cells, a bit less than we’d expect to need to get a double CCC. The conclusion, then, is that the odds are slightly against even one double CCC showing up by Darwinian processes in the entire course of life on earth.
[Michael Behe, The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism, p. 135, emphasis added]
Это был основной пункт критических замечаний. Практические результаты независимого исследования подтвердили правоту профессора Бихи.
Подробности здесь. Рекомендую также посмотреть эту записку на uncommondescent.com и комментарии к ней.
No comments:
Post a Comment